The Thinker
Private Market Briefing · Session 1

Michael's Musings

A private briefing on markets, valuations, and the things worth thinking about — shared with a small group of WSP clients.

📅 10 March 2026
🎙 Michael O'Hara, with Simon Tomkinson & Taryna Botek
~37 minutes
Session 1 of Series
Themes covered: Iran Conflict & Stagflation Risk · Market Snapshot & AU/US Divergence · Valuations & Extended Markets · Forward Return Expectations · Cash, Bonds & The Graduation · Active Management & Market Cycles
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Full Presentation
View the Session 1 Briefing
The complete interactive presentation as used in the live session — all seven sections, market data, the Wealth Pyramid™, and the Cash & Bonds analysis.
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Session Recording
Watch Session 1
The full recorded session — approximately 37 minutes. Opens directly in your browser or on your device. No sign-in required.

What We Covered

Four themes explored across ~42 minutes

01
Iran, Oil & Stagflation Risk
Oil spiked 30% — from $90 to $120 — then fell back in a single session. Why this matters beyond the headline, and what the 1970s tells us about inflation expectations becoming entrenched.
02
Markets — AU & US Divergence
ASX 200 fell 5.2% while the Dow recovered. BHP down 11.9%, CBA down slightly but still the world's most expensive bank by most measures. What the divergence is actually telling us.
03
Valuations & Forward Returns
Buffett Indicator near historic extremes. Perth — 1,500 homes listed, 8 days on market. Global institutions forecasting ~5.7% for balanced portfolios. WSP's own research suggests even that may be optimistic — with a tilt toward real assets and infrastructure.
04
Cash, Bonds & Active Management
Why bonds look bad in the rear-vision mirror but promising through the windscreen. The role of active managers in a volatile, expensive market — and why the Index layer remains the cornerstone before any of that applies.

Related Resources

Hub resources directly relevant to this session's themes

ValuationsExplainer
S&P 500 Valuation Analysis
CAPE ratios, historical PE, and how current US market pricing compares to prior peaks. Directly relevant to Session 1's valuations section.
ValuationsIn-Depth
Beyond Buffettism
Challenges the oversimplified buy-and-hold narrative. What Buffett actually did — and why structured flexibility often beats rigid adherence to slogans.
ValuationsIn-Depth
Central Banks & The Intervention Thesis
Includes the Buffett Indicator deep-dive, S&P 500 consecutive returns analysis, and historical counter-factuals. Core context for Session 1.
ValuationsPerth Property
Perth Housing & Asset Inflation
Interactive analysis of Perth property market trends, asset price inflation, and local housing affordability metrics discussed in the valuations section.
Cash & RatesExplainer
Cash Rate vs Inflation
Australian interest rates and inflation trends. Note: inflation figures have since come in lower than projected in this report — useful context nonetheless.
MarketsIn-Depth
Investing Into Expensive Markets
Strategic investment approaches when markets are highly valued. Directly relevant to the valuations and market cycles discussion from Session 1.
PortfolioIn-Depth
SAA Return Expectations
Long-term expected returns across asset classes. The forward-looking context that underpins the cash vs bonds graduation discussion.
PortfolioDelta DAA
Delta Economic Scenarios
Nine probability-weighted economic scenarios and expected returns. The scenario framework referenced in the market cycles section of Session 1.
ToolDatabase
WSP 6-Monthly Investment Report
Search and compare 106+ investment options across major Australian funds. Useful for exploring bond and cash ETF options discussed in Session 1.
General Advice Disclaimer. This briefing contains general financial information only. It is not personal financial advice. Personal financial advice must be provided in the form of a Statement of Advice and takes into account your individual financial objectives, position, and circumstances. If you have questions about how any of the topics discussed apply to your situation, please contact your adviser directly.