ASX 200 Monthly Returns: January 2020 – March 2026

Price index movements, month by month · Green = advancing · Red = declining · Line = cumulative index level (right axis) · Price only — excludes dividends

What this chart is — and is not — telling you

Over this particular six-year period, every significant decline — COVID, the rate hike shock, Liberation Day tariffs, the Iran conflict — was followed by recovery. That is a historical observation about what happened. It is not a guarantee that recovery will always follow, or that it will happen quickly enough for every investor.

This is why time in the market matters. If funds are needed in the short or medium term, markets may not have recovered by the time a sale is required — and selling during a downturn can crystallise a real loss. The case for tolerating short-term volatility only holds when your investment horizon is long enough to allow recovery to occur.

The cumulative line is not a promise. It is a record of what patient investors — those who did not sell during the red months — experienced over this specific period.

Start (Dec 2019)

6,684

Index level

All-time high (Feb 2026)

9,203

Record close

Price gain — peak to start

+37.7%

Price only, no dividends

Worst single month

-20.7%

March 2020 (COVID)

Est. total return

~+62%

Price + dividends reinvested

Advancing month

Declining month

Cumulative index level

Speed:

Ready

Beyond the price chart: dividends, income & franking credits

Price return only

+37.7%

Dec 2019 to Feb 2026 peak. What the bars and line above show.

Est. cumulative dividends

~25%

Approx. 4% p.a. cash yield over 6.25 years, paid regardless of price movements.

Est. total return (dividends reinvested)
~+62%
Price gain plus income reinvested over the period. Sourced from accumulation index data.

The chart above shows price movements only — that is, how the index level moved up and down. It does not show the income investors received along the way. Australian shares have historically paid dividends of around 3.5–4.5% per year in cash. Those payments continued even during months when the price fell — meaning investors were being paid to wait through the red months.

If those dividends were reinvested rather than spent, the total return over this period is estimated at approximately +62%, compared with the +37.7% price-only gain to the February 2026 high. The difference — roughly 24 percentage points — represents the compounded value of income earned along the way.

A note on franking credits: A significant proportion of ASX 200 dividends are fully franked, meaning the company has already paid 30% corporate tax on the underlying earnings before distributing them as dividends. Australian resident investors can claim those tax credits back, which meaningfully boosts after-tax returns — particularly for investors on lower marginal tax rates, including retirees, who may receive some or all of those credits as a cash refund. This benefit is not captured in any of the return figures above, and represents an additional layer of value specific to Australian share investments.

Data sources: ASX / S&P Dow Jones Indices. Monthly figures are approximate end-of-month price returns derived from known index levels and publicly available market data. Individual monthly figures may vary from published sources. | Estimated months: September 2025 onwards are estimated based on available market commentary and known index endpoints. Marked (~) in the chart. March 2026 is a partial month to approximately 20 March 2026. | Total return estimate: Based on SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ETF (STW) total return data (2020–2025) and estimated 2026 partial year. Includes dividends reinvested, excludes franking credits and brokerage. | Annotated events: (1) COVID-19 market crash, March 2020; (2) Pfizer vaccine announcement, November 2020; (3) RBA rate hike cycle, 2022; (4) US 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariff announcement, 2 April 2025; (5) Iran-US conflict escalation, March 2026.

This chart is for educational and illustrative purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Individual investor outcomes will vary based on entry and exit timing, tax position, costs, and portfolio construction.